Stock Watch: Quarterbacks
By Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
The NFL draft is fast approaching and much fantasy-relevant news will be coming from New York, but in general, what you currently see at quarterback around the league that matters for our statistical purposes in 2014 is already pretty set.
Sure, the occasional rookie quarterback will make an immediate impact, but because there seems to be little consensus on even who the top quarterback prospect is and whether the Houston Texans, owning the first overall pick, are even interested in that side of the football, it's not worth discussing today.
There have been myriad moves this offseason affecting the fantasy value of quarterbacks, and that's why it’s never a bad time for an April Stock Watch!
<!--offer-->Stock rising
Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos: OK, didn’t this guy just throw for 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns? How could his stock rise? Well, the most important doctor’s checkup of the winter went well, and Manning was cleared for 2014. Hey, don’t take it for granted. I’ve been trying to come up with angles on why Manning should not be the No. 1 quarterback, and I just can’t do it. But he’s still a late second-rounder to me.
Eric’s Updated Top 25 QBs For 2014
Tier 1
1. Peyton Manning, Broncos
2. Drew Brees, Saints
3. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Tier 2
4. Andrew Luck, Colts
5. Matthew Stafford, Lions
6. Cam Newton, Panthers
Tier 3
7. Russell Wilson, Seahawks
8. Colin Kaepernick, 49ers
9. Robert Griffin III, Redskins
10. Nick Foles, Eagles
Tier 4
11. Matt Ryan, Falcons
12. Tom Brady, Patriots
13. Tony Romo, Cowboys
14. Andy Dalton, Bengals
15. Philip Rivers, Chargers
Tier 5
16. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
17. Jay Cutler, Bears
18. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
19. Alex Smith, Chiefs
20. Brian Hoyer, Browns
21. Eli Manning, Giants
22. Joe Flacco, Ravens
23. Jake Locker, Titans
24. Michael Vick, Jets
25. Josh McCown, Buccaneers
Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins: It has been one good season, one bad one. So which do you believe? I think Griffin’s rookie season is repeatable and last year, when his coach was making a fool of himself and the quarterback was limping around, should simply be ignored. The Redskins are now being run -- on the field, at least -- by Jay Gruden, whose West Coast offense should look a bit different, and that alone should aid Griffin, his knee presumably now 100 percent. Add in the ridiculously easy acquisition of uber-talented DeSean Jackson and Griffin has a major weapon going deep, whereas Pierre Garcon, the league leader in receptions, was more of a possession guy. Griffin moves back into my top 10 quarterbacks.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons: Reports on wide receiver Julio Jones being ahead of schedule recovering from a foot injury is all I need to hear to regard Ryan as a potential starter in a 10-team league. Right now he’s 11th, but because I wait on quarterbacks anyway, he's perhaps my starter in several leagues. Ryan with weapons is underrated.
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts: Similarly to Ryan, Luck gets Reggie Wayne back from a shredded knee and the team signed talented red zone threat Hakeem Nicks. This might not be great news for the individual statistics of Wayne, Nicks and T.Y. Hilton, but Luck, fantasy's No. 4 quarterback in 2013, is a star who gets drafted later than he should. Why can’t he throw for 4,500 yards and 30 scores? Why can’t he keep running? I’ve moved him ahead of Cam Newton to the top of Tier 2 because I believe.
Brian Hoyer, Cleveland Browns: Well, they got him a running back in Ben Tate, and Josh Gordon remains on the team. Hoyer's torn ACL is fixed and I don’t think there’s any question he’s the starter for new coach Mike Pettine. Hoyer is a sleeper for two-quarterback formats.
Stock falling
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers: Not the best offseason for this fellow, that’s for sure. Start with the surprise announcement of March ankle surgery, which brings with it a four-month recovery period. Newton should be fine for the preseason but still, for a guy whose value is obviously related to his running ability, it’s a factor. Second, top receiver Steve Smith is now with Joe Flacco in Baltimore, and all the Panthers signed to handle the receiving chores were Jason Avant, Tiquan Underwood and Jerricho Cotchery. I don’t think this means Newton will necessarily have a bad season, but add in left tackle Jordan Gross retiring and it’s enough for me to take another quarterback in Round 4, or frankly wait a few rounds longer for Ryan and Tony Romo, as tends to be my strategy anyway.
Geno Smith, New York Jets: Smith was the best of an uninspiring crew of rookie quarterbacks during the 2013 season, finishing 20th at the position in standard scoring. He passed the 20-point mark in five games, which actually matched what Newton did, but it’s those other games and the myriad interceptions that were an issue. Should Smith improve? Absolutely! Did he need weapons? Sure did! Are running back Chris Johnson and wide receiver Eric Decker enough to change things? In theory they are, but I’m not fans of their individual fantasy value now. Each was better off in the old place. However, with Michael Vick being an offseason acquisition, it mitigates any potential stock rise for Smith. Vick will never play all 16 games, but even the threat of him starting Week 1 or Week 10 -- and it's going to be there unless Smith goes all Nick Foles on defenses -- is enough to make me ignore Smith until 2015. And even then, I'm not sure his statistical upside is awesome.
Mike Glennon, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: New coach Lovie Smith thinks his ol’ Chicago Bears quarterback Josh McCown, now 34, is the starter, so anything Glennon did as a rookie has clearly been forgotten. Glennon had his moments, averaging a modest 15 fantasy points over a seven-week span, then he cooled off later in the year against tougher defenses. Really, Josh McCown? Seems foolish to me, but forget about Glennon for now.
Terrelle Pryor, Oakland Raiders: When a bad team decides trading for Matt Schaub is suddenly more important that trying to improve your somewhat tantalizing game, it’s a problem. Pryor needs to find a new team. In basically half a 2013 season, he finished 9 rushing yards behind Newton for tops among quarterbacks, so there is ability, but his arm hasn’t received the memo.
By Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
The NFL draft is fast approaching and much fantasy-relevant news will be coming from New York, but in general, what you currently see at quarterback around the league that matters for our statistical purposes in 2014 is already pretty set.
Sure, the occasional rookie quarterback will make an immediate impact, but because there seems to be little consensus on even who the top quarterback prospect is and whether the Houston Texans, owning the first overall pick, are even interested in that side of the football, it's not worth discussing today.
There have been myriad moves this offseason affecting the fantasy value of quarterbacks, and that's why it’s never a bad time for an April Stock Watch!
<!--offer-->Stock rising
Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos: OK, didn’t this guy just throw for 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns? How could his stock rise? Well, the most important doctor’s checkup of the winter went well, and Manning was cleared for 2014. Hey, don’t take it for granted. I’ve been trying to come up with angles on why Manning should not be the No. 1 quarterback, and I just can’t do it. But he’s still a late second-rounder to me.
Eric’s Updated Top 25 QBs For 2014
Tier 1
1. Peyton Manning, Broncos
2. Drew Brees, Saints
3. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Tier 2
4. Andrew Luck, Colts
5. Matthew Stafford, Lions
6. Cam Newton, Panthers
Tier 3
7. Russell Wilson, Seahawks
8. Colin Kaepernick, 49ers
9. Robert Griffin III, Redskins
10. Nick Foles, Eagles
Tier 4
11. Matt Ryan, Falcons
12. Tom Brady, Patriots
13. Tony Romo, Cowboys
14. Andy Dalton, Bengals
15. Philip Rivers, Chargers
Tier 5
16. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
17. Jay Cutler, Bears
18. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
19. Alex Smith, Chiefs
20. Brian Hoyer, Browns
21. Eli Manning, Giants
22. Joe Flacco, Ravens
23. Jake Locker, Titans
24. Michael Vick, Jets
25. Josh McCown, Buccaneers
Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins: It has been one good season, one bad one. So which do you believe? I think Griffin’s rookie season is repeatable and last year, when his coach was making a fool of himself and the quarterback was limping around, should simply be ignored. The Redskins are now being run -- on the field, at least -- by Jay Gruden, whose West Coast offense should look a bit different, and that alone should aid Griffin, his knee presumably now 100 percent. Add in the ridiculously easy acquisition of uber-talented DeSean Jackson and Griffin has a major weapon going deep, whereas Pierre Garcon, the league leader in receptions, was more of a possession guy. Griffin moves back into my top 10 quarterbacks.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons: Reports on wide receiver Julio Jones being ahead of schedule recovering from a foot injury is all I need to hear to regard Ryan as a potential starter in a 10-team league. Right now he’s 11th, but because I wait on quarterbacks anyway, he's perhaps my starter in several leagues. Ryan with weapons is underrated.
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts: Similarly to Ryan, Luck gets Reggie Wayne back from a shredded knee and the team signed talented red zone threat Hakeem Nicks. This might not be great news for the individual statistics of Wayne, Nicks and T.Y. Hilton, but Luck, fantasy's No. 4 quarterback in 2013, is a star who gets drafted later than he should. Why can’t he throw for 4,500 yards and 30 scores? Why can’t he keep running? I’ve moved him ahead of Cam Newton to the top of Tier 2 because I believe.
Brian Hoyer, Cleveland Browns: Well, they got him a running back in Ben Tate, and Josh Gordon remains on the team. Hoyer's torn ACL is fixed and I don’t think there’s any question he’s the starter for new coach Mike Pettine. Hoyer is a sleeper for two-quarterback formats.
Stock falling
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers: Not the best offseason for this fellow, that’s for sure. Start with the surprise announcement of March ankle surgery, which brings with it a four-month recovery period. Newton should be fine for the preseason but still, for a guy whose value is obviously related to his running ability, it’s a factor. Second, top receiver Steve Smith is now with Joe Flacco in Baltimore, and all the Panthers signed to handle the receiving chores were Jason Avant, Tiquan Underwood and Jerricho Cotchery. I don’t think this means Newton will necessarily have a bad season, but add in left tackle Jordan Gross retiring and it’s enough for me to take another quarterback in Round 4, or frankly wait a few rounds longer for Ryan and Tony Romo, as tends to be my strategy anyway.
Geno Smith, New York Jets: Smith was the best of an uninspiring crew of rookie quarterbacks during the 2013 season, finishing 20th at the position in standard scoring. He passed the 20-point mark in five games, which actually matched what Newton did, but it’s those other games and the myriad interceptions that were an issue. Should Smith improve? Absolutely! Did he need weapons? Sure did! Are running back Chris Johnson and wide receiver Eric Decker enough to change things? In theory they are, but I’m not fans of their individual fantasy value now. Each was better off in the old place. However, with Michael Vick being an offseason acquisition, it mitigates any potential stock rise for Smith. Vick will never play all 16 games, but even the threat of him starting Week 1 or Week 10 -- and it's going to be there unless Smith goes all Nick Foles on defenses -- is enough to make me ignore Smith until 2015. And even then, I'm not sure his statistical upside is awesome.
Mike Glennon, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: New coach Lovie Smith thinks his ol’ Chicago Bears quarterback Josh McCown, now 34, is the starter, so anything Glennon did as a rookie has clearly been forgotten. Glennon had his moments, averaging a modest 15 fantasy points over a seven-week span, then he cooled off later in the year against tougher defenses. Really, Josh McCown? Seems foolish to me, but forget about Glennon for now.
Terrelle Pryor, Oakland Raiders: When a bad team decides trading for Matt Schaub is suddenly more important that trying to improve your somewhat tantalizing game, it’s a problem. Pryor needs to find a new team. In basically half a 2013 season, he finished 9 rushing yards behind Newton for tops among quarterbacks, so there is ability, but his arm hasn’t received the memo.
